Prediction modelling of fire spread are a critical component of operational fire management and strategic risk planning.

A key knowledge gap is the effects of variation in fire severity on post-fire fuel loads. In preliminary research led by Rachael Nolan, Director of the NSW Bushfire and Natural Hazards Research Centre, in collaboration with NSW DCCEEW's Senior Remote Sensing Research Scientist, Rebecca Gibson, FESM data was used to quantify burn heterogeneity effects on post-fire fuel loads, and test whether modifying fuel load estimates based on the fire severity and patchiness of the last fire improves the accuracy of simulations of subsequent fires. We found that accounting for burn heterogeneity, and fire severity effects on bark, improved the accuracy of fire spread for a case study fire. 

Nolan et al (2024) Incorporating burn heterogeneity with fuel load estimates may improve fire behaviour predictions in south-east Australian eucalypt forest, International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF22179.

We are currently extending this work in collaboration with the University of Queensland and NSW NPWS, to test broader applications of modified fuel hazard parameters to incorporate prior severity into fire behaviour modelling across a wider range of case study fires.